About NuFed

You create or interpret GAAP-based models to give your firm insight into US banks. And this works well. Our message is that you can double the dataset you employ and be more certain of your analysis. nuFed Forecasts has the potential to generate better performance for your firm and get you home early!


Its Purpose

Let’s face it: New banking risks mean your analysis must be stronger than ever. You could do with your own second opinion to be sure of your predictions. That opinion is simple to build with nuFed Forecasts. It has the potential to amplify your analysis; all it needs is you behind the wheel.


To this effect, the nuFed Forecasts model is robotic. It has no ideas about the future. It uses latest actual scores for each line item into the Future, and waits for your drivers. It exists to enumerate any worldview that comes to mind.


What it Delivers

nuFed Forecasts is simple: It forecasts the Fed’s FRY9C accounts using your specs. For the first time, Fed data can be extrapolated into a complete model. The model is built, works equally well for any US bank and can be populated in minutes. The nuFed forecasts model is replete with detail.


Line counts of nuFed forecast accounts are:





Its Method

nuFed forecasts math is both sound and systematic. Consider these features:


  1. Interest income is independently forecast for loans and securities
  2. Loan interest income is derived from quarter-average volumes and NAL levels, for each loan class
  3. Securities owned are calculated from drivers pertaining to excess Tier 1 capital
  4. Net income, Retained Earnings and Shareholders’ Funds consistently align
  5. All breakout tables total and perfectly nest into the balance sheet
  6. Average balance sheet, balance sheet and regulatory capital schedules always jive
  7. Tier 1 capital and risk-weighted assets are built from the ground up, every quarter
  8. Risk-weighted assets are calculated using balance sheet and risk-weighting drivers
  9. Wholesale funding balances the balance sheet; cost of funds is user-set
  10. The model is entirely formulaic; no hard-codes exist


Its Accuracy

Backtest accuracy of the nuFed Forecasts model is 98%. That is, forecasting out 2 years, commencing in 1Q02. Backtest accuracy is enumerated by entering correct driver values, retrospectively known, for all quarters since 1Q02. Equipped with these correct driver sets, the nuCast forecast model consistently returns net income within 2% of actual net income reported. Exhibition of backtest accuracy is automatically included with forecasts, for any bank.



Its Benefits

  • Prove your own forecasts using an alternative dataset
  • Use a dataset consistent over Time
  • Use a method consistent across banks
  • Build a fully integrated model in minutes
  • Widen your variables1
  • Enjoy total privacy
  • Access the unique and revealing nuFed dataset
  • Tap 180 income sensitivities, back through Time
  • Forecast bank collectives2
  • Closely relate models using prefabrication3


Its Design

Access

nuFed Forecasts is a web service. The Forecast model resides on a hosted server, available from anywhere, anytime with a nuFed Forecasts license4 From home; while on the road; by any person with whom you collaborate.



Process

Customers of nuFed Forecasts perform three easy steps to generate their Fed-based forecasts. Let’s assume a nuFed Forecasts customer wishes to forecast, say, Citigroup. The customer can:


  1. Download blank driver set for Citigroup
  2. Populate the Citigroup driver set
  3. Calculate forecasts by dispatching his/her Citigroup drivers to the nuFed Forecasts model


These three steps are shown in this diagram.






By performing these three easy steps, a customer securely receives back Citigroup Fed—based forecast accounts faithful to their drivers. Accounts received are value-only. The customer can touch up or entirely repopulate the driver set, and re-calculate many times, honing their drivers. And a blank driver set can be downloaded multiple times for the same bank, and populated differently to obtain alternative forecast accounts for the same bank.


Mode

nuFed Forecasts and nuFed Historics are non-invasive add-ins (or ‘toolbars’) loaded into Microsoft ExcelTM. nuFed toolbars look like this:



tool bar sample


tool bar sample 2


nuFed software is designed for ultimate privacy of client data. Client data is never shared5. All questions on security are addressed specifically and in detail in the Set-up Tutorial.



Its price

The price of a nuFed solutions license – which bundles bank forecasting and historics – is US$10,000 per month. In our view, replacing a single license would cost at least $1m per year in labor. Learn more about nuFed pricing, including how to obtain it free of charge, at the nuFed Pricing page.



arrow   Learn about nuFed Pricing
arrow   Watch the Tutorials
arrow   Learn more about the makers of nuFed

Download this page as a PDF




1Driven by universal logic true for all banks, not GAAP disclosure limited to the bank in focus
2Like banks $1b - 5b in assets, or all Midwest banks
3Fed-based models for banks or bank collectives can be used to methodically shape a new bank’s drivers, line by line. This creates potential for harmonious assumptions, among bank models.
4Uptime = 100 % since 2004
5In fact, client drivers are encrypted and inaccessible to every individual other than those with the client’s login credentials and toolbars. This even includes nuFed staff. nuFed will always maintain total client privacy.